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I don’t think so. Here’s why."
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TOPIC: I don’t think so. Here’s why."

I don’t think so. Here’s why." 5 months, 3 weeks ago #35467

  • liny195
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/>Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesStampede Blue homepageHorizontal - WhiteStampede Bluean Indianapolis Colts communityFollow Stampede Blue online:Follow Stampede Blue on TwitterFollow Stampede Blue on FacebookLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchStampede Blue main menuFanpostsFanshotsColtsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Colts StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Colts NewsYahoo Colts Team PageYahoo Colts ReportYahoo Colts Depth ChartYahoo Colts TransactionsYahoo Colts PhotosShop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ✕Breaking NewsAndrew Luck Retires×Is Parris Campbell another Phillip Dorsett?New John Simon Color Rush Jersey ,106commentsI don’t think so. Here’s why.EDTShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:Is Parris Campbell another Phillip Dorsett?TwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailPhoto by Harry How/Getty ImagesWhen the Colts selected wide receiver Parris Campbell in the second round, it seemed like a natural fit with the offense. By now, you’ve likely seen Reich’s reaction to the pick as shown on the Colts fantastic series, “With the Next Pick.” This was clearly a player they coveted, and one for whom Reich has a plan in mind. What you might have also been thinking about was the last time that the Colts took a blazing fast wide receiver. It is tough to completely let go of the selection of Phillip Dorsett in the 2015 draft. He was a stupidly fast receiver who gave us hope of a second T.Y. Hilton and the idea of that got us carried away with how incredible that might be, even as we lamented the defensive talent that was left on the board.You know how things went from there. Dorsett failed to live up to the hype, proving to be a bit of a one-trick pony, and never establishing himself as much beyond a guy who floated on the periphery of the team. Not what you are looking for in a first round pick, certainly. So, given that information, it would be understandable if you viewed Parris Campbell through a very cynical lens. How is Campbell going to work out any better than Dorsett did? In fact, how do these players differ at all?That’s what I wanted to dig into a little bit. These guys aren’t the same, and I want to help ease your mind a bit about Campbell’s potential, so let’s get right to it.SizePhoto by Justin K. Aller/Getty ImagesThe most noticeable difference between Dorsett and Campbell comes in the form of their significant size difference. Dorsett weighed in at 185lbs and stood 5’9” at his pro day. By comparison, Campbell stands 6’0” and weighed in at 205lbs. Dorsett’s arms measured 30 1⁄4 inches by comparison to Campbells which are 32 1⁄4 . In terms of sheer size difference, this is massive. Dorsett’s smaller stature impacted his ability to win at the catch point, as well as making it harder to beat press coverage or deal with physical corners. He often struggled to get open at all, got bullied at the line, and never developed the polished route running that would have helped negate his size disadvantage, the way T.Y. Hilton has done.Campbell’s larger size should aid him in some of the areas that caused Dorsett to struggle. His stature should keep him on a more equal footing with defensive backs when going for contested catches, and he should be less susceptible to being knocked around by physical cornerbacks than was Dorsett.SpeedPhoto by Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesPhillip Dorsett was certainly a fast player-- that much is not in doubt. However, it is interesting to note that despite being larger across the board, Campbell actually had the better 40-time. Dorsett clocked in at 4.33 at the combine, while Campbell clocked a 4.31. In terms of quickness, Campbell clocked a 4.03 20-yard shuttle, which is an excellent indicator that straight line speed is only a part of what makes him an exciting prospect. By comparison, Phillip Dorsett clocked a 4.11. Again, despite being the bigger guy, Campbell has the faster time in terms of short area quickness. Speed isn’t the end all, be all. If it was, Dorsett would have been a fine player. It is a trait Chris Ballard looked heavily for in this draft, but it is still just part of what makes a player capable of being great.StylePhoto by Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesOne of the areas Dorsett never managed to make any impact was as a player who could make something happen with the ball in his hands. He was billed coming out as a guy who could take the top off of a defense, and that was the area he was most effective. He was never asked to do a lot beyond running deep burners, and he never had the slippery way about him that T.Y. does, finding his way behind coverage seemingly unnoticed.Campbell, on the other hand has made his hay on the underneath routes and crossers, using his excellent acceleration and contact balance to rack up tons of yards after the catch and ending getting himself up stuck with the label of “gadget” player. While both players had limited route trees coming out and largely were hampered by their college usage, Dorsett’s skills didn’t match up with the kinds of things the Colts needed most from a receiver. Worse still, he wasn’t able to use those skills that were billed as his strong points nearly as effectively as the team had hoped. The Colts already have a player in Hilton who can take the top off a defense. They also have a solid big slot in the form of Devin Funchess. What they needed was a guy who can stretch the field sideline to sideline with his speed and explosiveness, and provide a home run threat with the ball in his hands. That is what Campbell brings. The Colts will no doubt attempt to develop him into a player who can be as dangerous down the sideline as he is across the middle, but he won’t be expected to do that from day one.Special TeamsPhoto by Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesIf you can’t remember how Phillip Dorsett fared as a return man, you can be forgiven. He didn’t do much of it. In his time with the Colts, despite his incredible speed https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Chester-Rogers-Jersey , he managed to amass just 13 yards on kick and punt return duty. If you remembered anything about his return game, it is likely that in his debut against the Bills, he muffed two punts, the second of which was recovered by the Bills and resulted in a score. This is an area where Campbell should find some traction. In his junior year, the last year he had kick return duties, he averaged 36.8 yard per return. It is no surprise when you watch his tape. Again, crediting his contact balance and vision in conjunction with his speed, it comes as little surprise that he would excel here. Because of Dorsett’s struggles to make an impact on special teams, as well as the heightened expectation of being a first round pick, this was a huge weakness. Even if Campbell is limited in his usage on the offense for a while, he should have plenty of opportunity to be a difference maker on special teams. Front Office and Coaching StaffPhoto by Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesProbably the biggest difference between the two players comes in terms of the coaching. When Dorsett was drafted, it felt as though Grigson did so as a flex move to use in negotiations with T.Y. Hilton. We don’t know if the team had a better plan for him than this, or how involved the coaching staff was in the selection process, but given the toxic nature of things and all we know now, that seems unlikely.This front office and coaching staff are far different. We have seen first-hand that this group was on the same page in terms of Campbell. Ballard was picking a guy for whom Frank Reich and he had already discussed a use. This was a guy they liked, and who they felt adds character and dynamic ability to the team. Scheme fit and having a plan for a player aren’t everything, the player still has to perform well and work hard. However, getting the right player for the right system counts for a lot. ConclusionPhoto by Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesIt seems like Phillip Dorsett was a player selected because he was flashy, and because he gave Ryan Grigson leverage at the table with T.Y. Hilton in contract discussions. The GM did not have great chemistry with his coaching staff, and they did not have a cohesive plan for how to maximize his talents, or if they did, it was very poorly executed. The expectations were sky-high for Dorsett, and his smaller frame and inability to develop as a route runner or contribute on special teams critically hampered his progress.By comparison, Campbell is a bigger, faster, and better-suited player to what the Colts need now. Frank Reich was intimately involved in the process of zeroing in on him as an option, and Ballard has made sure they get a guy who is equal parts speed and substance. While it is ultimately up to Campbell to prove he has what it takes to be more, I think there is more than enough reason to believe we aren’t getting another Phillip Dorsett in Indy. Hindsight is 20/20. In the heat of the moment, tough decisions are made. Sometimes they work out. Sometimes they don’t. One thing we, as fans, need to avoid is hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is when you look back on a situation and say, “Well, yeah, of course they should have done this instead of that because what they did didn’t work. I knew it wouldn’t work.” If you disagreed with the call at the time, that’s fine. However, it’s important to understand the reasoning as to why those tough decisions were made and avoid hindsight bias. The Indianapolis Colts currently sit two games back of the Houston Texans for the lead in the AFC South. Many fans will look back to Frank Reich’s aggressive play calling in overtime against the Texans in Week 4 and question whether he made the right decision.Here’s some advice, don’t do that. Don’t fall into that trap.Why? Because no one knows how the end of that game would have played out had Reich decided to punt instead. The Texans could have blocked the kick or returned the punt for a TD. They could have gotten a long gain to Hopkins to set up the game winning field goal anyway. They could have pulled a miracle play like we saw in Miami that the Dolphins used to beat the Patriots. The Steelers used a similar play last week with 14 seconds remaining to put themselves in position to tie the game but missed the kick. Houston would have had about 17 seconds remaining if Reich punted. There’s literally no way of knowing with absolute certainty that Week 4 would have ended in a tie had Reich punted. And let’s not forget, if the Colts had converted, everyone would be talking about how great a call it was and laud Reich for his aggressiveness.What we do know is the locker room loved the call.Former players loved that call. Reich explained that he trusted his players to make a play. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. That time it didn’t. But the most important thing is the players believe in Frank Reich and he believes in them.In the very next week, the Texans again went to overtime. The Dallas Cowboys had the ball, 4th and 1, at the Houston 42 yard line. Instead of going for it with one of the better running backs in the league, Ezekiel Elliott Antonio Morrison Jersey , Jason Garrett punted. Houston won the game.Yes, the time remaining was different. But as a Colts fan, would you rather have a conservative coach like Garrett that doesn’t believe his players can get a single yard or would you rather have Frank Reich who trusts his players to make plays? Reich is the obvious choice. One could argue it was more important for Frank Reich to solidify his locker room in that moment, which it did. There is some concern that Reich now feels he must be aggressive in those situations, like he was in the Jacksonville game. However, the only call I questioned at the time was going for it at the Jacksonville 31 yard line. Going for it on 4th and 1 at the Jacksonville 1-yard line was fine in my book. Their offense was struggling so making them drive 99 yards would have been tough for them.Another issue with hindsight bias is it causes one to overemphasize the importance of a single moment. Fans focus on that failed conversion attempt against Houston as the reason the Colts lost that game but few remember Ka’imi Fairbairn missed the field goal. However, Reich called time out and gave Houston another chance, which Fairbairn made. Fans also overemphasize the importance of a single game over the course of a 16 game season. Yes, the loss to the Texans in Week 4 hurt. However, if we’re focusing on a single play, let’s take a look down memory lane to one play in several games that had they gone differently, the Colts would be in a very different position. Week 1: Jack Doyle fumbling against the Cincinnati Bengals cost the Colts an opportunity to win the game. Doyle is a six year veteran and has four total fumbles in his career. The guy is one of the more reliable players on the team. It was a fluke. Had Doyle just gone down instead of pushing for extra yardage, the Colts would likely be only a game back of Houston.Week 3: During the Eagles final touchdown drive, which was 17 plays and lasted an incredible 11:19, another single play happened that may have changed the game. With the Colts up 16-13, on 3rd and 9 Nelson Agholor caught a pass and clearly stepped out of bounds two yards short of the first down. That would have put them at 4th and 2 at the Colts 28 yard line with about 5 minutes left. The Eagles likely kick that field goal or the Colts defense would at least get the opportunity to stop them on 4th down.Week 4: We’ve talked about the 4th down call ad nauseam. However, on the Colts’ first possession in overtime, Marcus Johnson had a ball hit him in the numbers on a 3rd and 2 at the Houston 25 but dropped it. Had he made that play, the Colts possibly score a touchdown and end the game.Week 5: The Colts went down 31-17 but were moving the ball with ease against the Patriots. Zach Pascal bobbled a pass from Andrew Luck and it got intercepted. The next play, Sony Michel scored a touchdown. That’s potentially a 14 point turn around so instead of it being 38-17, it could have been 31-24. The Colts defense forced a three and out on the Patriots’ next possession. The offense went down and scored, which would have tied the game 31-31.Admittedly, that last one is a stretch but you catch my drift. In any game, there’s one play that can make a difference. The Colts were unlucky quite often early in the season when it came to those one plays. To the contrary, Houston has been incredibly lucky all season. They got a reprieve against the Colts in Week 4. In Week 5, the Cowboys didn’t go for it on 4th down despite Elliott running for almost 3 yard per carry that game. In Week 6, they got a pick 6 with 1:24 remaining against the Bills. In Week 9, Vance Joseph decided, with 43 seconds remaining and at least one timeout, to settle for a 51 yard field goal with a struggling kicker rather than get closer for a much easier kick. In Week 11, Houston got a 100 yard pick 6 against Washington and broke Alex Smith’s leg but still almost lost with a long field goal that fell short. In at least five games during their 9 game win streak, the ball kept bouncing in Houston’s favor. That’s incredible.The fact is the Colts weren’t lucky early and Houston has been incredibly lucky all season. One shouldn’t focus on the 4th down call against Houston as the main reason the Colts aren’t winning the division.The other problem with hindsight bias is it clouds your view of the overall picture. The Colts weren’t expected by many to be in playoff contention, let alone the division title, this year. Even if the Colts had won in Week 4, they’d still be a game behind the Texans with them playing the New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and Jaguars in the final three weeks. There’s no guarantee they lose any of those games and they’d need to lose at least one. The Colts finish the season with the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans and would need to win out.Will it be amazing if the Colts make the playoffs? Abso-freaking-lutely. Do they still have a chance to make the playoffs? Yes and it’s actually better than you might think. If the Colts win out and if either the Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers lose one more game, the Colts are in. Baltimore hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 and Cleveland Browns in Week 17 but play at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16. Pittsburgh’s schedule is markedly more difficult. They host the New England Patriots in Week 15 and Cincinnati Bengals Week 17 but go on the road to play the New Orleans Saints in Week 16.Both teams have some difficult games coming up and could easily lose at least one game so don’t count the Colts out based solely on the Week 4 loss to Houston. If the Colts do make the playoffs, they will be a tough out and have a legitimate shot to make it to the Super Bowl. There doesn’t seem to be any juggernaut in the AFC that can’t be beaten. The Colts have a top 5 quarterback with a top offensive line and a fast defense that forces turnovers. That’s a recipe for success in January. Add on they’ll likely have won at least 8 of their last 10 games, more likely on a 4 game win streak, and teams won’t want to face the Colts in the playoffs. Everything the Colts are doing this year is icing on the cake. Chris Ballard is building this team the right way. Fans should be excited about the future of the franchise and stop falling into the trap of hindsight bias. We can’t change what happened. We don’t know whether the Colts would have tied Houston if Reich had punted. We should stop worrying about the things we cannot change and enjoy the ride that is the Colts bright future.
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